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Date: May 19, 2004 (Wednesday)
Time: 12:30 to 14:00 (Light lunch at 12:30, Seminar begins at 12:45)
Venue: Seminar Room 3, G/F, Laboratory Block, Faculty of Medicine
Building, 21 Sassoon Road, Pokfulam
Abstract:
Medical savings accounts (MSA) have been proposed as a solution
to health care cost growth problem. While many studies have examined
the cost-containment aspect of MSA, few have examined the adequacy
of MSA to finance the health care expenditure. This paper estimates
the present value of lifetime health care expenses (PVHE) of the
elderly in Singapore. The estimation involves calibrating the stream
of future health care expenditure; stochastic forecasting of cohort
survival probabilities; and discounting the projected lifetime health
care expenditure. The health care expenses are calibrated based
on the survey results of a longitudinal study of transition in health
of the elderly Singaporeans. The survival rates of the elderly are
forecasted using the Lee-Carter method. Discounting is based on
the yield curves delineated by the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross interest
rate model. Estimated values of the PVHE under various scenarios
are used to assess the adequacy of MSA in Singapore.
Bio-sketch:
Dr Chia Ngee-Choon is an Associate Professor of economics at the
Department of Economics at the National University of Singapore.
She has held visiting positions at the University of Western Ontario
and University of Warwick. She specializes in Public Finance and
uses general equilibrium computations to analyze tax policy issues.
She has consulted for the World Bank on tax policy reforms for Ivory
Coast and was a resource person for the Asian Development Bank and
conducted the annual tax training workshops for tax administrators
during 1995-2001. Her current research interests include general
equilibrium modeling of medical financing, reverse mortgages as
retirement financing scheme, pension economics, generational accounting
and fiscal impacts of ageing. She received her PhD from University
of Western Ontario, Canada.
Registration:
For registration, please call/ email Ms Maggie Cheuk at 2819-2841/
mhrn@hkusua.hku.hk
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